SriLankan Airlines, economy and tourism

  Published : 1:17 am  December 30, 2013  |  1,602 views  |  No comments so far  |     |  E-mail to friend 

SriLankan Airlines CEO Kapila Chandrasena estimates aviation industry’s contribution to national economy at 3.8% of GDP, of which SriLankan Airlines’ contribution is at 2.2%. With a GDP value of $ 60 billion, 2.2% works out to around $ 1.3 billion.
He said total contribution to economy comprised of 2.2 percentage points from UL and an estimated 1.6 from other airlines including Mihin Air.
“As travel and tourism grows, their contribution to the economy will rise in tandem and we forecast in the next five years the overall industry contribution to be around 5 or 6%, with SriLankan Airlines giving a major impetus,” Chandrasena said.
The future scenario compares well with 6% by Greece or over 5% in Hong Kong. Malaysia’s contribution is around 3% whilst Thailand and New Zealand are higher at 9% and 11% respectively.
“Sri Lanka is strategically located to harness the predicted boom in tourism, especially out of India and China. Our new fleet will help us position SriLankan Airlines effectively to tap this growing segment,” the CEO said.
Demand out of Sri Lanka grew at an impressive annual growth rate of 8.6% (net of capacity) for the past two years, and is forecast to maintain the same trend for next five years, according to the SriLankan Airlines CEO. Combined total number of passengers carried during the two years (2011/12 and 2012/13) was 7.86 million, with trend forecasts showing the figure to rise to nearly 12 million by 2017/18.
“Demand into Sri Lanka out of key markets is showing very good growth prospects, with Asian countries leading the growth,” he said, adding that “Sri Lanka is located in an enviable position to capture some of the strongest and fastest growing regional travel flows in the world, including India and China.”
For example, air passenger traffic in India and China is forecast to grow by 70% by 2017/18. Intra-Asian travel is also estimated to boom further by 2030 as Asia Pacific’s middle income class rapidly grows. Colombo’s attractiveness as a hub to facilitate some of the strongest and fastest growing travel between North East Asia and Europe, South East Asia and India, South East Asia and Middle East, Southeast Asia and Europe and China and Europe will be greater as well.
In the first quarter of 2014, SriLankan will formally join the oneworld alliance. This, among other major benefits, will enhance rewards and recognition for top-tier FlySmiLes members with ability to earn and redeem with any alliance member.
“Being invited to join the oneworld alliance and being the first carrier in the Indian Ocean is a major boost for SriLankan Airlines. We should be on course to join this prestigious and biggest alliance by April 2014,” Chandrasena added.
oneworld is an alliance of the world’s leading airlines committed to providing the highest level of service and convenience to frequent international travellers. These include leading brands from each global region. Besides American, they feature LAN from South America; airberlin, British Airways, Finnair, Iberia and Russia’s S7 Airlines from Europe; Qatar Airways and Royal Jordanian, from the Middle East; Asia-Pacific’s Cathay Pacific Airways, Japan Airlines, Malaysia Airlines and Qantas; and some 30 affiliated airlines. Besides SriLankan Airlines, US Airways and Brazil’s TAM are also lining up to join early next year.
With the addition of these airlines, the oneworld network will expand to almost 1,000 destinations in more than 150 countries, served by 14,250 daily departures – equivalent to a oneworld flight taking off or landing every three seconds around the clock – carrying 475 million passengers last year and generating annual revenues of US$ 140 billion. There are 140 million members of established oneworld airlines’ frequent flyer programs as well.

Frontier Markets Private Equity firm of the year in Asia Region for 2013

Jupiter Capital wins global award

Jupiter Capital Partners, has been named the "Frontier Markets Private Equity firm of the year in Asia Region for 2013". Jupiter was awarded this honour at the Annual Awards organized by Private Equity International (PEI).

Other nominees for this award were Vietnam based Mekong Capital and global investment firm Kohlberg Kravis and Roberts. PEI is a world's leading financial media group specialized in business to business information market in private equity, private real estate, private debt and infrastructure.

PEI has been conducting annual awards since 2001 and awards are conducted under three geographic regions: Asia, Americas and Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Jupiter was launched in 2012 as the first Sri Lankan independent private equity firm with the aim of developing a platform to channel equity investments into Sri Lanka's Small and Medium Enterprises. The Company has put in place an investment platform where Sri Lankan institutional and individual investors can invest in high growth SMEs. Jupiter is also working towards establishing a US$ 75 million Sri Lanka Fund with funding from international institutional investors. In addition, Jupiter provides investment placement services for larger private equity deals.

Commenting on the award Indika Hettiarachchi, Managing Director of Jupiter said: "This award is a testament to our success in drawing attention to Sri Lanka among global private equity and institutional investment community. This award places Jupiter among the world's leading Private Equity firms and it is a rare recognition for a one year old firm based in a small frontier market like Sri Lanka. This award also reflects global investor interest in Sri Lanka. 

- See more at: http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=business/jupiter-capital-wins-global-award#sthash.lG4UsRrD.dpuf

Sri Lanka lubricant market stagnant in 2013: Chevron

18 Mar, 2014 10:59:22

Mar 18, 2014 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's lubricant market is estimated to have stagnated or contracted further in 2013, on top of a decline in 2012, Chevron's unit in the island said while cautioning against state attempts to expand trade freedoms of the people.

"We estimate that the lubricants consumption would have remained stagnant or reduced further on top of the 4 contraction in 2012 due to adverse weather conditions in the first quarter of the year, reduced vehicle imports and longer oil drain intervals," Chevron Lubricants chief Kishu Gomes told shareholders."The reduced demand from the thermal power sector also contributed to the lower consumption of lubricants."
Thermal power generation has since picked up amidst dry weather.
Sri Lanka's lubricant market is estimated at around 55 million litres a year.
While revenues fell to 11.2 billion rupees in 2013 from 11.7 percent in 2012, cost fell to 7.0 billion rupees from 7.9 billion, helping boost profits to 2.5 billion rupees from 2.2 billion rupees.
Gomes said raw material prices were favourable and the firm had improved efficiencies.

Anti-Competitive
The firm spoke out against state moves to relax a licensing regime and help consumers by improving their trade freedoms.
"While all big global and regional lubricant players have a presence in the Sri Lankan market, with 13 players operating in a market that is relatively small with a potential of 55 mn litres per annum, the Ministry of Petroleum Industries has initiated action to award further licences to new entrants to the lubricants industry," Gomes said.
"While more competition may be good for the consumer it becomes imperative to bring about the right regulations and put in place a legal framework to ensure sanity in the market for fair play and to safeguard the consumers."
Sri Lanka's lubricants market was at one time an absolute state monopoly, and for several years after the lube business was spun off from state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation it continued as a private monopoly.
The industry was opened up in stages, allowing incumbents to continue making large profits.
Mercantilist Legacy
Economic analysts say monopolies were introduced to Asia by Mercantilist imperial companies such as the Dutch East India company (VOC) and the British East India company.
In Sri Lanka the most draconian of them involved a cinnamon monopoly, but there were many others ranging from salt to tobacco.
The legacy of their grip slackened in Sri Lanka especially in the mid 19th century as free traders and other liberals especially in Britain defeated Mercantilism, economic nationalism and slavery.
However after independence from British rule, many state enterprises were created with monopolies which were enforced strictly against citizens by the elected ruling class in a range of areas that were not seen even under colonial rule, critics say.
Analysts say most modern multi-national firms which are true-capitalist companies usually thrive on competition and rely on branding and quality to win over customers rather than depending on the coercive police power of the state involving regulation, licensing or import taxes.
In Western markets there are also competition regulations against monopoly power of a dominant single player.
In general it is about 38 percent market share in the EU and 60 percent in the US, though there is debate about freely won market share.
Chevron however inherited a 100 percent state monopoly under a privatization program in the 1990s and has since seen its market share reduce amid competition.
Lube Fraud
Gomes also said there was widespread fraud in the industry involving product adulteration and 'cross filling' containers of branded with other companies, especially by unlicensed players.
"With the increased number of players that may enter the market in 2014, these issues are likely to get aggravated," he claimed.
It was not clear how the activities of unlicensed players or frauds by existing licensed players are related to the entry of new licensed players.
Gomes said the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka was the shadow regulator for the industry but lacked the teeth to combat fraud.
Economic analysts say and copyright and anti-fraud laws have to be enforced and regulations should be directed at enforcing internationally accepted standards required by motor manufacturers, but limiting the number of players should not be a goal in a free country

SRI LANKA TO ALLOW MORE LUBRICANT MARKETERS

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Sri Lanka to allow more lubricant marketers

December 24

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Sri Lanka will soon grant more licenses to allow companies to sell lubricants on the island, officials said. Sandya Wijebandara, additional secretary of Sri Lanka’s petroleum ministry, told a business forum in Colombo that three companies have already applied to start dealerships.

Wijebandara said more applications were expected by the deadline.  ”We are ready to license any number of players who meet the criteria,” she said.  There are expectations that at least 10 other players may enter the industry.

Soumen Ganguly from Lanka IOC, a unit of Indian Oil Corp., said Sri Lanka only had a 50,000 metric ton a year market and already there are 10 players.  By comparison, India has a 1.3 million ton market and there are 25 companies, he said. He felt it may be difficult to do business with 23 players in Sri Lanka.  Though Sri Lanka’s Public Utilities Commission acts as the regulator for lubricants, it lacks the ability to prosecute those who sell low quality oils, Ganguly said.

Currently, Chevron, Lanka OIC and state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corp. are among the front-runners to receive the new licenses.

PUCSL Director General Damitha Kumarasinghe cited the benefits of increased competition.

(November 26, 2013)

More players to enter Lubricants market?

Lubricant player calls for an effective regulator

TUESDAY, 18 MARCH 2014 10:11

The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka, which operates as the shadow regulator in the absence of a proper regulator, has not been empowered to deal with the issues confronting the lubricant industry, a top official of Sri Lanka’s largest lubricant industry player stated.

“The necessity for an effective regulator is an urgent need of the hour from the perspective of all stakeholders,” Chevron Lubricants Lanka PLC Managing Director/CEO Kishu Gomes said in his review to the company annual report 2013.

The CEO pointed out that the further issuance of licences to new players in a relatively small market, product adulteration in various forms and rebranding and distribution of products by nonlicenced players were among the issues the industry faced due to the lack of proper regulation.

“While all big global and regional lubricant players have a presence in the Sri Lankan market, with 13 players operating in a market that is relatively small with a potential of 55 million litres per annum, the Ministry of Petroleum Industries has initiated action to award further licences to new entrants to the lubricants industry,” he said.

 Gomes noted that while more competition may be good for the consumer, it becomes imperative to bring about the right regulations and put in place a legal framework to ensure sanity in the market for fair play and to safeguard the consumers.

Although this issue has been brought to the notice of all stakeholders by the industry players, there has been no success.

“It is hoped that the government be judicious in issuing licences to more players, as this could have an adverse effect on the industry as a whole,” he further stated.

Gomes went on to state that product adulteration in various forms is also continuing, posing a serious risk to the consumer.

“The rebranding and distribution of products by non-licenced players also continues unabated while ‘cross filling’, the filling of products to containers proprietary to other players thereby misleading the customer and avoiding duties and taxes to the government coffers in some cases,” Gomes added.

He is of the view that with the increased number of players that may enter the market in 2014, these issues are likely to get aggravated.

Sri Lanka Pharma market size is USD450mn

Bangladesh pushes biosimilar pharma JVs with Sri Lanka

  Published : 12:00 am  March 22, 2014  |  32 views  |  No comments so far  |     |  E-mail to friend 

• First ever govt-to-govt effort of this nature mulled
• With a guaranteed cold chain!: Bangladeshi Health Secy. Uddin
• Can help reduce our medical import bills: Rishad

For the first time, a government to government level cooperation effort is emerging to strengthen the supply of a crucial class of medicines in the $ 450 million Lankan pharmaceutical market. The Bangladeshi pharmaceutical sector, which manufactures no less than 450 generic drugs for 5,300 registered brands, is now ready to partner with Sri Lanka to produce vital medicines used by seriously ill patients.
“Our local pharmaceutical manufacturers cater to 97% of the internal demand and they also export. We are ready to support Sri Lanka to produce biosimilar pharmaceuticals such as insulin and finalise them to finish product levels with a guaranteed cold chain. We are ready for government to government level JVs to begin with,” said Bangladesh Health Secretary M.N. Neaz Uddin.
Bangladeshi Health Secretary Uddin was addressing Minister of Industry and Commerce Rishad Bathiudeen on 20 March at the EDB premises in Colombo. Secretary Uddin is in Colombo leading a 10-member strong Bangladeshi health sector delegation to the country.
Biosimilar pharmaceutical products such as insulin, growth hormones, and hepatitis B vaccines are used by critically ill patients. It is estimated that this segment consists of around 9% of Sri Lanka’s $ 450 million overall pharmaceutical market. Bangladesh manufactures more than 450 generic drugs for 5,300 registered brands with 8,300 different forms of dosages and strengths.

All top ten pharmaceutical manufacturers are of Bangladeshi origin without being multinationals, indicating a strong domestic manufacturing base.
When it comes to Bangladeshi pharmaceutical exports, Beximo Pharmaceuticals is the leader taking for 19% of its $ 70 million exports (in 2012). The Bangledeshi domestic pharmaceutical market alone is estimated to be around $ 1.25 billion.
“Our local pharmaceutical manufacturers cater to 97% of the internal demand and they also export. We are ready to support Sri Lanka to produce biosimilar pharmaceuticals such as insulin and finalise them to finish product levels with a guaranteed cold chain. This is the first time we are looking at government to government level cooperation in the sector between both countries. We also invite Sri Lanka to visit and see some of our pharmaceutical manufacturing plants. We have high quality products and we are very competitive in pricing. Pharmaceutical joint ventures are a goal in Bangladeshi-Sri Lanka cooperation,” said Health Secretary Uddin.
“A government to government level joint venture can also help reduce our pharmaceutical import bill. Your suggestions are interesting and let us discuss terms and products on this with line agencies here. Our Economic Development Minister Basil Rajapaksa is keen to commence a pharmaceutical zone in Sri Lanka and your initiatives can help advance his vision,” said Minister Bathiudeen. “We are thankful for your invitation to visit your pharma plants of which we will consider favourably,” he added.

Potential output of Sri Lanka: It is dangerous to speed the car beyond installed engine capacity

  Published : 12:00 am  March 17, 2014  |  430 views  |  No comments so far  |     |  E-mail to friend 

Impatience of politicians to accelerate the engine of growth
Politicians, no matter where they are in the globe, are like youngsters at the wheel of a racing car. They want to kick-start an economy, have a quick pick-up and accelerate it to a speed never ever achieved by their predecessors. Their impatience for a rapid economic growth is not matched by the slow pace in which things are happening around them. The quick-fix methods suggested to accelerate growth push everyone over the limit resulting in a state of panic which then leads to stress.

A story circulating among economists about a ruler in an East Asian country gives a very good example of the impatience of politicians. When this ruler was told that an economy cannot get into a high growth path all of a sudden without damaging its foundation, he had demanded for an explanation. His advisors, the story says, had told him that that was against the ‘laws of nature’. The reference here is that every system is governed by its internal rules that cannot be manipulated by humans. But, his immediate order had been that they should change those obstructing laws of nature by using their majority power in the legislature. 
The impatience which politicians show in doing things is understandable because they have to impress the voters that they are better than their rivals. But it is the duty of the advisors to moderate the speed to match with the installed capacity of an economy. If politicians do not listen and advisors fail in their duty, there will be irreparable damage to the foundation of an economy.
IMF with CBSL onto estimating potential output 
In this connection, a working paper just released by IMF on Sri Lanka’s ‘potential output’ or the level economic growth it can achieve without overstretching its installed capacity is a good guidance. This paper titled ‘Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output’ has been authored by Ding Ding, John Nelmes, Roshan Perera and Volodymyr Tulin (available at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41414.0 ). It appears to be a collaborative research project done by IMF with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka or CBSL with one of its reputed economists, Roshan Perera, as a member of the research team.
Working Papers are in fact advance presentation of the findings of an ongoing research study for eliciting comments and views to facilitate the researchers to finalise the final results. Hence, their results are not yet conclusive and awaiting for moderation. Yet, they give a good indication about the direction to which the research under reference has taken the researchers. According to the authors, the preliminary findings of the research work have been presented in a seminar at CBSL and they have been benefited by the feedback received from the seminar participants.
Potential output is the ‘economic stability’ in CBSL’s mandate 
The potential output has to be understood by reference to economic stability which is one of the objectives of CBSL. As argued by this writer in a previous My View in this series, ‘economic and price stability’ with which CBSL has been mandated to achieve means setting the economy’s aggregate demand at a level equal to its aggregate supply (available at http://www.ft.lk/2011/10/10/central-bank%E2%80%99s-mandate-is-to-attain-both-%E2%80%98economic%E2%80%99-and-%E2%80%98price%E2%80%99-stability/).
Once this condition is met, there will be neither inflation nor deflation in the economy. Thus, the potential output is the level of output which the economy can attain without causing either inflation or deflation. Both inflation and deflation are considered two public enemies to be fought. Inflation reduces real wellbeing of people, enriches borrowers at the expense of savers and lenders, taxes exports and subsidises imports, puts pressure on the exchange rate to depreciate and causes havoc and chaos in an economy, to mention but a few of the evils of inflation.
Deflation leads to a reduction in output, employment and the use of resources in an economy. Hence, to sustain economic growth in the long run, a proper economic policy should seek to avoid either one and establish stability in prices. That can be done only by sticking economic growth to its potential output. The objective of the IMF Working Paper has been to estimate the potential output in Sri Lanka so that the economic policy makers could design a growth path helpful to its long term sustainable growth.
Both positive and negative output gaps are dangerous
If an economy’s actual output differs from its potential output, it generates an ‘output gap’ – the difference between the two expressed as a percentage of the potential output. If the actual output is bigger than the potential gap, it creates a ‘positive output gap’ and if it is smaller, a ‘negative output gap’. One might conclude that a positive output gap is a desirable outcome since it produces more of the goods and services which an economy can produce based on its installed capacity. But this is not so. That is because any positive output gap is a temporary achievement since the economy has no capacity to sustain it forever.
As such, when the output increases above the potential output, it generates a new money income increasing the aggregate demand in the economy. But when the output falls in the subsequent years, the demand becomes higher than the supply creating an excess demand. Economists call this ‘overheating the economy’ just like a vehicle driving above its engine capacity gets overheated. Unless the cooling mechanism of the vehicle is effective, the overheating could cause permanent damage to the engine.
Similarly, in the case of an economy, overheating causes inflation generating all the inflation related evils in the economy. If there is a negative output gap, then, there is deflation causing unemployment and economic recession. Hence, proper economic policies should avoid both. As such, the advantage of estimating the potential output is the availability of a benchmark for policy makers, namely, those in the Central Bank and in the Ministry of Finance, to assess the desirability of economic activities.
Monetary policy action to depend on the type of output gap
If there is a negative output gap, then, of course, it justifies a central bank’s loosening its monetary policy stance to increase the aggregate demand to the level of the potential output. However, once the economy reaches the potential output level, the bank should immediately halt its expansionary monetary policy to avoid the increase in the aggregate demand over the aggregate supply and thereby prevent the economy from getting overheated.
If there is a positive output gap, the Bank’s monetary policy stance should be in the other way about. It should take restrictive monetary policy action to curtail the aggregate demand and eliminate the inflationary pressures. Accordingly, an accurate knowledge of the size of the potential output in an economy is the most important prerequisite for a central bank to design its monetary policy programme.
Potential output is determined by an economy’s installed capacity
The output of an economy is similar to the output produced by an individual. If an individual works longer hours using more of his labour, applies new knowledge bringing his human capital into production and sophisticated equipment facilitating production process, he could produce more. These are called inputs – labour, technology and physical capital – used for production.
At any time, a given level of labour, technology and physical capital will determine the maximum output – or potential output in economists’ terminology – he can produce. If he can acquire more labour, better technology and better equipment, he can increase his potential output. Similarly, for an economy, there is a potential output level fixed by the available labour, technology and physical capital.
If an economy desires to increase this potential output, one of the prerequisites is to increase each one of them. Since an economy is a growing enterprise, these are not fixed but subject to constant change. The infusion of new inputs will make the conditions better; in the opposite, the non-development of new inputs or neglect of the maintenance of the existing inputs will reverse the initial growth.
Temporary episodes of faster growth are not sustainable
An economy might show some periods of faster growth in the output followed by a decline in the output thereafter. These are called temporary improvements in the economy. Any researcher seeking to estimate the potential output will have to eliminate these temporary episodes of increased output and concentrate on the permanent growth as determined by the installed capacity of an economy.
To do so, researchers have to use advanced estimation techniques and subject them to rigorous testing methods. This is exactly what the four researchers under reference have done. They have built an economic model highlighting the output gap, unemployment gap and the capacity utilisation gap and tested the model with the quarterly data for Sri Lanka from the beginning of 1997 to the end of 2012.
Hysteresis Effect: Past behaviour matters
In building the model, an important element they have used is the impact of the past behaviour of a particular factor on its current behaviour, known as the Hysteresis Effect in science and used by economists.
Accordingly, past inflation affect the current inflation by causing to have higher or lower inflation expectations, past unemployment will affect the current unemployment by pushing the wages upward and past capacity utilisation will affect the current capacity utilisation by creating constraints for new capacity utilisation. This is intuitively understandable since what we do today is guided by what we have experienced yesterday. It is valid for both negative and positive experiences but more strongly for negative experiences. For instance, if we our gas cooker had a leak leading to a fire in the cooker yesterday, it is quite natural for us to become extra cautious and restrain ourselves in our behaviour.
Sri Lanka’s potential growth rate is more or less equal to the actual growth
By applying different estimation methods used by reputed economists, the researchers have come up with an estimate of an annual potential output growth experienced by Sri Lanka ranging between 6.5% and 6.8%. On average, this works out to an annual potential output growth of 6.7%. This is more or less equal to the country’s actual average output growth during 2002-12 which stands at 6.4%.
Accordingly, on average, Sri Lanka had had a slight but negligible negative output gap in the past. However, it poses problems for the authorities who aspire to increase the growth rate above 8% per annum over the next decade since there is no installed capacity in the economy to sustain that growth rate as at present. Though the country may have temporary surges in economic growth as it had experienced in 2010 immediately after the end of the war, such growth rates cannot be continued unless there is an expansion in its capacity.
Enhancement of capacity is a matter for the government and not for the central bank
This is a problem to be tackled by the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economic Development and not by the Central Bank. Why the Central Bank cannot do it is because it does not have real resources except the power to print money. If money is printed to increase the potential output, the result is the increase in the aggregate demand over the potential output thereby overheating the economy.
But, the Government can have real resources transferred to it through taxation and direct those real resources to enhance the potential output capacity of the economy. But those expenses of the government should be properly prioritised, directed to productive infrastructure and development of human capital including research and technology. But it requires a reorientation of the country’s budgetary policy.
A multi-pronged approach to enhance capacity
To increase the capacity to raise its potential output, Sri Lanka should have a multi-pronged approach. It involves, on the economy side, investment in necessary and productive infrastructure, acquisition of new technology, employment of the unemployed youth in productive employment, acquisition of modern technology and management practices and diversion of a greater volume of output for continuous investment.
On the fiscal side, it involves many reforms in the budgetary processes. One is the diversion of unproductive and inefficient budgetary allocations to necessary human capital development – that is, more investment in education, health and acquisition of technology. Another is the reform of the important but presently loss making public enterprises and closing or handing over to private sector the unimportant public enterprises.
Halt the expansion of the State sector 
A third reform is the halting of undesirable public sector expansion which has become a serious problem for taming the budget and bringing down the need for borrowing more simply for repaying the principal and paying interest. On the economic environment side, the necessary reforms should include protection of property rights, observance of the rule of law, maintenance of law and order and establishment of an independent Judiciary to facilitate the concerned citizens to seek redress against what they perceive to be injustice committed by governmental authorities.
On the business side, action should be taken to improve the country’s ease of doing business. In the global arena, Sri Lanka should be integrated seamlessly to the international markets so that what it produces above the country’s aggregate demand could be sold to foreigners. These are difficult but not impossible reforms if the authorities make a firm commitment to undertaking them.
Without these reforms, the continued expansion of the economy through liberal monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy will only overheat the economy creating inflation and along with that inflation, bringing all the evils of inflation to the economy.

(W.A. Wijewardena, a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, can be reached at waw1949@gmail.com.)